Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
